Executive Summary

Q1 2025 net sales were $3.727B, with adjusted EBITDA of $172M and adjusted diluted EPS of $(0.39); results declined year-over-year and sequentially, driven by seasonal mining logistics constraints and lagging spot prices .
Management guided Q2 2025 adjusted EBITDA to $375–$425M and expects positive enterprise free cash flow as working capital headwinds unwind, a potential near‑term catalyst .
Mini Mill shipments reached a record in Q1 as Big River 2 ramped; excluding ~$55M BR2 ramp impact, Mini Mill EBITDA margins were ~10% .
Liquidity stood at ~$2.868B, including ~$0.594B cash; management expects Q1 to mark the lowest cash balance of the year due to working capital and BR2 ramp .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Flat‑Rolled delivered a 5% EBITDA margin despite seasonal mining constraints, supported by commercial strategy and disciplined cost management .
Mini Mill achieved its highest quarter of shipments to date; excluding BR2 ramp impact, segment EBITDA margin reached ~10%, with strong customer feedback on ultra‑light gauge hot roll .
Tubular posted sequential gains on stronger average selling prices; segment EBITDA improved to $25M in Q1 2025 from $15M in Q4 2024 .

Quoted management remarks:

“Our adjusted EBITDA of $172 million highlights the strength and resilience of our operating performance…” .
“Mini Mill EBITDA margins reached 10% [excluding ramp]… BR2… continues ramping toward full capacity” .
“We expect the first quarter to mark our lowest cash balance for the year… driven primarily by working capital impacts related to mining and the ramp up of BR2” .

What Went Wrong

Consolidated net loss of $116M and adjusted EBITDA down to $172M, reflecting lagging spot prices and seasonal mining logistics constraints .
Cash used in operations of $(374)M and free cash flow of $(732)M in the quarter, with cash declining to ~$0.638B due to working capital and strategic capex .
Mini Mill EBITDA compressed to $5M as lower realized prices and ramp‑related impacts weighed on profitability despite volume gains .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Net Sales ($USD Billions)	$4.160B	$3.509B	$3.727B
Net Income (GAAP) ($USD Millions)	$171	$(89)	$(116)
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$0.68	$(0.39)	$(0.52)
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)	$206	$(28)	$(87)
Adjusted Diluted EPS	$0.82	$(0.13)	$(0.39)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$414	$190	$172
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %	10.0%	5%	4.6%
Net Income Margin %	4.1%	(3%)	(3.1%)
Consensus EPS (S&P Global)	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable
Consensus Revenue (S&P Global)	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Segment EBITDA and margins:

Segment	Q1 2024 EBITDA ($M)	Q4 2024 EBITDA ($M)	Q1 2025 EBITDA ($M)	Q1 2024 EBITDA Margin %	Q4 2024 EBITDA Margin %	Q1 2025 EBITDA Margin %
Flat‑Rolled	$156	$222	$104	6%	10%	5%
Mini Mill	$145	$(8)	$5	21%	(2%)	1%
U.S. Steel Europe	$46	$(35)	$35	5%	(6%)	5%
Tubular	$69	$15	$25	25%	6%	10%

KPIs (average realized price and shipments):

KPI	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Flat‑Rolled Avg Price ($/nt)	$1,054	$956	$984
Flat‑Rolled Shipments (k nt)	2,049	1,846	1,985
Mini Mill Avg Price ($/nt)	$977	$789	$761
Mini Mill Shipments (k nt)	568	575	782
USSE Avg Price ($/nt)	$830	$751	$741
USSE Shipments (k nt)	1,072	732	856
Tubular Avg Price ($/nt)	$2,267	$1,539	$1,729
Tubular Shipments (k nt)	114	143	136

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA	Q1 2025	$100–$150M	~$125M	Maintained (mid‑point refined)
Adjusted EPS (diluted)	Q1 2025	N/A	$(0.53) to $(0.49)	New
Adjusted EBITDA	Q2 2025	N/A	$375–$425M	New
BR2 Ramp Impact (Mini Mill)	Q1 2025	~$50M	~$50M	Maintained
BR2 Ramp Impact (Mini Mill)	Q2 2025	N/A	~$50M	New
Dividend per share	Q2 payment (declared May 1, 2025)	N/A	$0.05 payable Jun 11, 2025	Maintained recurring dividend

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: An earnings call transcript for Q1 2025 was not available in the document catalog; themes below reflect prepared remarks, guidance releases, and the earnings presentation.

Topic	Q3 2024 (Previous Mentions)	Q4 2024 (Previous Mentions)	Q1 2025 (Current)	Trend
BR2 ramp/technology	Achieved first coil; shipments planned Q4	Initial shipments; positive customer feedback; ramp to continue	Record Mini Mill shipments; ~10% margin excl. ~$55M BR2 ramp; ultra‑light gauge hot roll highlighted	Strengthening execution
Mining logistics constraints	N/A	Seasonal constraints expected to impact Q1	Pressured Flat‑Rolled; easing expected in Q2	Temporary headwind unwinding
European demand/pricing	Challenging, aided by CO2 allocation benefit	Still pressured; slight improvement expected	Tepid demand; results broadly consistent in Q2; cost management supportive	Stabilizing at low levels
Tubular pricing	Weaker in Q3	Largely consistent outlook Q4→Q1	Sequential gains on ASP; Q2 broadly consistent	Improving then stable
Tariffs/macro	N/A	N/A	Applauded tariff announcements; assessing benefits	Potential tailwind
Nippon Steel transaction/CFIUS	Working towards closing by year‑end; added commitments	Ongoing strategic alternatives review costs	Fresh CFIUS review directed; reiteration of $55/share path; employee support highlighted	Ongoing regulatory process
Liquidity/FCF trajectory	Cash down in 9M; investable FCF modest	Positive FCF expected in 2025	Positive enterprise FCF expected in Q2 as WC unwinds	Near‑term improvement expected

Management Commentary

“Our North American Flat‑Rolled segment achieved a solid EBITDA margin of 5%… product mix, and disciplined cost management” .
“We recorded our highest quarter of shipments to date from our Mini Mill segment as Big River 2… continues ramping toward full capacity” .
“We expect second quarter adjusted EBITDA in the range of $375 million and $425 million… and positive enterprise free cash flow” .
On guidance cadence: “Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $125 million is in line with our prior first quarter outlook… BR2 is expected to make a significant contribution to our 2025 EBITDA” .

Q&A Highlights

The Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was not found in the document catalog; no Q&A content available to extract [ListDocuments: earnings‑call‑transcript returned none]. Guidance clarifications from prepared materials include: Q2 EBITDA $375–$425M, BR2 ramp impact of ~$50M in Mini Mill, and expectation of positive enterprise FCF in Q2 .

Estimates Context

We attempted to retrieve S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus estimates for Q1 2025 (EPS, revenue, EBITDA), but the CIQ mapping for ticker X was unavailable, so consensus data could not be fetched at this time. As a result, beat/miss versus Street estimates cannot be assessed here [GetEstimates errors].

Key Takeaways for Investors

Sequential setup improves: Q2 adjusted EBITDA guided to $375–$425M with positive FCF expected as mining logistics constraints ease and working capital unwinds, supporting near‑term sentiment .
Mini Mill inflection: BR2 ramp is driving record shipments; excluding ramp costs, Mini Mill margins (~10%) indicate underlying earnings power as pricing stabilizes .
Flat‑Rolled resilience: 5% EBITDA margin amid seasonal constraints underscores mix and contract strategy; expect improvement as prices flow through in Q2 .
Tubular steadying: Sequential EBITDA improvement and higher ASPs point to stabilization; Q2 expected broadly consistent .
Europe remains a watch‑item: Demand still tepid; higher prices/volumes offset by seasonal maintenance—keep expectations muted .
Liquidity adequate through ramp: ~$2.868B total estimated liquidity and cash expected to trough in Q1; monitor capex and BR2 ramp timing .
Event risk: Ongoing CFIUS review of the Nippon Steel transaction and tariff policy developments are key macro/stock catalysts; monitor litigation timeline and regulatory outcomes .

UNITED STATES STEEL CORP (X)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary